Every election has surprises, so it's always impossible to declare victory for Democrats OR Republicans, progressives OR conservatives. So to pick the winners and losers of 2013, we'll need to get granular...
Personalities:
- Bill de Blasio won the personality contest hands-down. While pundits focus on his fabulous family - as they should - Bill himself is genuinely warm, empathetic, and upbeat. If he delivers on his promises, he could become a major progressive force in national politics, like Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt.
- Chris Christie truly believes he has a winning personality, combining toughness and compassion. But he's "Jersey Shore" all the way, which isn't likely to play in Peoria. And his really ugly side comes out every time he sees a parent or a teacher.
- Terry McAuliffe is the ultimate salesman, which can turn people off. But if he delivers results as Governor - and there's no reason he won't - he can become a national figure as a socially liberal, pro-business Democrat.
Issues:
- Obamacare is a lot more popular than Anti-Obamacare, which is what Ken Cucinelli and the national GOP are trying so hard to sell. That's partly because a decent chunk of Obamacare "opponents" think it doesn't go far enough - they want Medicare for All, not a return to the nightmare of Bushcare. But most sensible Americans are taking a wait-and-see approach: if it works, they'll embrace it.
- Medicaid expansion to the states is even more popular than Obamacare. Since it's fully paid for by the federal government for a few years, who can seriously oppose health care for the working poor?
- Abortion is a lot more popular than Anti-Abortion, which Cucinelli tried running away from. But if you have a record of anti-abortion fanaticism, women are going to make you pay.
- Gay marriage is here to stay. If it freaks you out, don't run for office.
- Sensible gun laws are more popular than NRA-style gun fanaticism, especially since there's a news-dominating massacre nearly every week.
- Raising taxes isn't popular, except in New York City, where obnoxious arrogant billionaires are their own worst enemies.
- Raising the minimum wage may be the most popular issue in America - which means Democrats should wake up and go on offense.
Parties:
- Democrats are more united than ever - no longer divided by issues like race, abortion, gay rights, or immigration. Hillary Clinton keeps the historic Obama coalition united, and adds lots of moderate white women. Her path to victory is clear.
- Republicans are unusually divided between Tea Party meth-heads and Wall Street coke-heads. Chris Christie has Wall Street locked up, but Ted Cruz has a similar lock on the Tea Party after leading the Obamacare Shutdown. So Cruz wins Iowa and South Carolina, while Christie wins New Hampshire, leaving the real test for Florida. In 2012, Romney overwhelmed Gingrich in Florida with Wall Street money, but in Cruz will have lots of Texas money in 2016 to fight back. The likeliest outcome is a gusher of GOP blood throughout the spring, which will be hard to replenish in time for November.
